股市茶楼

Interview with Scott Andrews from Master The Gap

股市茶楼 — Sat, 24 Dec 2011 13:52:25 +0800

Scott trades the e-minis using a unique style that he devised on his own through
years of backtesting and trading experience.

Read on for a great interview and learn more about how Scott trades, the
types of setups he’s looking for, and how he got started trading.

StockTickr: Tell us a little about yourself, Scott.

Scott: I grew up in rural Virginia and now live in Cary, North
Carolina with my wife and four daughters. I attended the United States Military
Academy, most commonly known as West Point. After graduating in 1987, I served
as an Aviation officer and helicopter pilot. Serving in Operation Desert Storm
was enough for me to realize that I loved the Army and flying, but not enough to
make it career. So, I left in pursuit of a more family-friendly lifestyle.

My first job was selling laboratory products and chemicals to scientists. It
didn’t take long to realize that they weren’t interested in hearing my “war
stories”; they just wanted to find and buy what they needed as quickly and
efficiently as possible. So, in 1995, I co-founded a company called SciQuest.com
and launched one of the Internet’s first business-to-business web applications.
In a nutshell, we created an Amazon.com shopping experience with about 2 million
laboratory products and chemicals for scientists that integrated with an
organization’s procurement systems.

StockTickr: How did you get started trading?

Scott: I had the privilege and good fortune of taking SciQuest public
on the NASDAQ exchange in 1999. It was during these crazy times while
interacting with analysts and institutional fund managers that I gained a
unique, front row seat of how the markets worked. However, it was the
extraordinary moves in our stock price, in both directions, that sealed my
interest in technical, short term investing.

After stepping down as CEO of my prior company in 2001, I started looking at
a variety of different entrepreneurial ventures for my next career. In fact,
over the course of a 6 month period I conducted a very extensive personal
analysis comparing my financial goals, skills and resources with the needs and
opportunities of a variety of different business opportunities.

After failing to find a match that motivated me, it struck me to consider
trading for a living as business venture. The thoughts of no employees, no
travel, maximum time with my family, minimal investment, and unlimited financial
potential were attractive to say the least. But I also knew that my genuine,
life-long interest in the markets combined with a mathematically and risk
oriented personality would likely serve as a great foundation for this career
change.

When this light bulb went off in my head, I committed 110% to becoming
successful as a full time trader. The only concern I ever really had was how
long it would take me to achieve consistent profits and how long my wife would
continue to support me and my new passion. Thankfully, she was patient.

StockTickr: Most traders have a horror story about losing their shirt when
they first started trading. What’s yours?

Scott: I had surprisingly good success at first and even made a profit
trading my first year. But then I increased my trading size and soon my average
size winner was dwarfed by my average size loss. Every time I had a winner, I
found an excuse to take profits prior to my originally planned target. I gave
back all of my first year profits (plus a little more) in the 1st quarter of my
2nd year.

It was a brutally tough and humbling experience for me, but I learned a lot
and was fortunate not to lose more. It was also a great catalyst that forced me
to evaluate my strengths and weaknesses, as well as my financial and lifestyle
goals. This self-evaluation resulting in me focusing all of my efforts and
energy on the opening gap – a setup that generates plenty of profit potential,
minimizes discretionary decision-making, and is easily back-tested.

StockTickr: Do you trade for a living now?

Scott: Yes, I trade for a living, mostly focused on the opening gap. I
also run an educational site (www.masterthegap.com) that I started in 2007 where
I share my research and help traders profitably trade the opening gap.

StockTickr: What single lesson did you learn along the way that has helped
you the most in your trading?

Scott: The biggest lesson for me was realizing that I did not need to
change “me” to be a successful trader. I simply needed to find the setup,
timeframe and approach that best suited for my personality, and strengths and
weaknesses. Too many new traders have it backwards; they get drawn to the
promise of profits and try to adapt their personality to trade that technique
profitably. Speaking from experience, that normally only results in extreme
frustration and confusion and ultimately, losses.

StockTickr: Describe your style of trading.

Scott: I focus my personal trading primarily on fading the opening gap
in the US futures indices (i.e. S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq 100, and Russell). At
the heart of my gap strategy are “zones.” I use these to segment and organize
the various gap setups into groups that may exhibit similar trading patterns. I
use the prior day Open, High, Low, and Close and prior day direction (up or
down), in conjunction with market trend, seasonality and daily price patterns to
determine whether to fade the opening gap or not.

Though my signals are a based upon a strategy system that I’ve created in
TradeStation, I manually execute the orders. On average I trade the gap about 2
times a week. I dabble with day trades during the opening hour and the close on
occasion, but my real edge and “bread and butter” comes from trading the
gap.

StockTickr: What’s your exit strategy for winning and losing
trades?

Scott: I generally target gap fill or beyond and use a stop equal to
roughly 30% of the 5 day ATR (Average True Range). Since all of my plans have a
pre-defined profit expectancy, I simply let the historical probabilities work
and I am either stopped out or have a nice winner.

StockTickr: What 3 books do you recommend traders read? Other than your
own, what are your 3 favorite blogs?

I recommend Mark Douglas’ books (The
Disciplined Trader or Trading
in the Zone), Trade
Your Way to Finanicial Freedom by Van Tharp, and Market
Wizards by Jack Schwager. To be honest though, I have read nearly a hundred
different books on trading and have learned something from each of them, but the
most important ones are about the psychology of trading.

My favorite blog is TraderFeed
by Brett Steenbarger. It’s the only one that I read routinely.

StockTickr: Do you think one day computers will make better traders than
humans and has that day come already?

For the average person and trader that day is already here. Most folks will
not be able to tackle the psychology and complexity of discretionary trading and
are better off following a system with rules. I am one of those people.

StockTickr: What technical indicators could you not live without?

Scott: A Japanese candlestick is the only one. Other than that, I
prefer price action and patterns. Most indicators are grossly over-rated, easily
mis-understood, and improperly used in my humble opinion.

StockTickr: How do you think the market has changed over the last several
years? How have you adapted?

Scott: Huge expansion in volatility of course. I had to move to an
average true range (ATR) based system for stops in order to accommodate the
volatile action of the past couple of years. And this has made position sizing a
little more complex, but manageable.

StockTickr: Do you backtest and if not, how do you instill belief in your
system?

Scott: All of my signals and gap trading decisions are based upon
historical probabilities that I’ve identified through extensive back-testing. I
trade much more profitably and patiently when I know that I have a historical
edge backing my setup. Otherwise, my personality is such that I tend to
over-manage and tinker with my trades – normally resulting in cutting my winners
short and riding my losers, a terrible combo!

StockTickr: What advice can you offer traders who are just starting
out?

Scott: Know thy self. Find that single market, setup and time of day
that best fits your personality and then focus, focus, focus! Way too many
newbies waste a bunch of time chasing the lure of money and the next great idea.
There are lots of ways to make money consistently in the markets, but none of
them can be found without an objective self-assessment and serious focus, effort
and analysis.

StockTickr: What do you like best about trading?

Scott: I love the freedom and control over my own life that it
provides. There are an unlimited number of ways to make and lose money trading
the markets. One of the surprising benefits for me has been the ability to use
my creative side to invent new ways to take profits out of the market. This is
truly exciting and empowering for those that have the stomach and means and
interest.

StockTickr: Thanks for your time, Scott.

Scott: Thanks, Dave.

巴菲特的"鹰眼"

股市茶楼 — Sat, 24 Dec 2011 13:52:24 +0800

1、运通（捷运）厄运为巴菲特创造机会

Exclusive Interview: Top Pro Trader Brian Shannon

股市茶楼 — Sat, 24 Dec 2011 13:52:24 +0800

A champion poker player abides by several concrete
rules including: 1) know when to fold, 2) know your opponent, 3) bet the proper
size, and 4) push your advantage when you have the best cards. Similarly,
professional independent trader Brian Shannon uses discipline and risk-management to
consistently win in the markets.

Brian is one of my trading mentors. I spent a few
years following his blog and ultimately his book Technical Analysis on Multiple Timeframes. During that
time I learned what Curtis Faith meant when he said, “One of the ways great
traders distinguish themselves from average traders is by their ability to
adhere to methods.” Brian’s methods are clear and simple. Like a great trainer,
Brian perpetually brings the wandering students back to the basics. He reminds
us we are playing a game of probabilities and if we confuse this point, we
cannot be successful over the long term.

I firmly believe that twenty years from now when we look back at this Golden
Era of Day Trading, Brian Shannon will be one of the faces and voices that will
define this space and time. He is both a true student and teacher of the markets
who can teach you to be a professional trader if you have the right combination
of skills and discipline.

I recently had the chance to chat with Brian about
his career, his Premium
Service at StockTwits, his advice for traders, what he looks for in
successful traders, and how his best and worst trades affected his career. So,
let’s deal the cards and see how the master plays our hand …

Damien
Hoffman: Tell me a little bit about that sweet rush with trading and you became
addicted and you knew you were hooked?

Brian: The first time I got that needle in my arm was when I was about 14 or
15-years old. I was living in Boston, Massachusetts. At the time Boston was the
car theft capital of the world. There was a local company called LoJack trying
to come up with a solution. I saw something on the news about the company — how
they were giving away the tracking units to the State Police. I had been
watching Wall St. Week with my Dad for a couple years, and I finally said, “Dad,
would that be a good stock to buy?” I had some money saved from different jobs I
did as a teen. He said, “Yeah, let’s invest.” I told him I had $500. He said the
stock was at $4 and he’d put up the rest of the money so I could buy 1000
shares.

Long story short, he gave me the leverage — I didn’t realize it was leverage
at the time. We bought 1000 shares and the stock went from $4 a share to $10 in
about 3 or 4 months. As a teen, I thought I was going to be rich beyond my
wildest dreams. I thought, “Why would anyone ever get a normal job when you
could just do something like this that is obviously so easy?”

Damien: Do you feel as though you have not had a regular job since
you’ve been a trader?

Brian: Not exactly. I have had regular jobs. I started in the industry as a
retail stock broker. In my mind that job was a glorified telemarketing position
rather than a job in high finance. I’ve had a number of brokerage jobs. Then I
worked as a proprietary trader, managed a proprietary trading desk, and managed
a small hedge fund for period of time. So, I’ve had little detours along the
way, but I always consider myself a trader first and foremost.

Damien: I’ve noticed a theme in my
interviews with traders. Many of them started because they thought it looked
easy or did well on the first few tries. At what point did you realize trading
required a lot of effort to be successful?

Brian: I had always been attracted to momentum names. And, I had experienced
some heart breaking losses along the way that brought me back to reality. To
survive in this game is difficult for people because our emotions get in the
way. But, if you do the work — which is hard work — and you’re disciplined, then
there is an equal chance for all of us to succeed.

As far as daily preparation goes, it really begins a little bit after the
market closes. I might go exercise or something, then come back to my desk for a
couple hours. I usually look through 150 or 200 different stocks and ETFs. I
like to get a feel for set ups with the potentially lowest risk yet high
probability of profits.

It’s a process of elimination to go through the charts on a lot of different
time frames and try to imagine different scenarios: good and bad. Then I develop
a risk-reward proposition and check if earnings are due out. So, that’s the
evening routine. Then, about an hour and a half before the market opens, I’m
sitting down, going through some emails and looking at some headlines. I don’t
read the news much — just the headlines. I’m trying to see what’s shaping the
sentiment of the day. I want to see if there is any unusual activity with the
stocks I was looking to trade. I set alerts, write notes in front of me as
little reminders, and try to get into that zone for the open. I make sure I have
a plan of action so I don’t become just a reactionary participant — which I
think a lot of people tend to do.

Damien: Sounds like you had great training and experience. At what
point did you decide to leave the prop trading firm and go out on your
own?

Brian: I left the retail brokerage industry in ‘93 or ‘94. At that time I
became a proprietary trader for a firm in New York. That meant I had to put up
$25,000 and they would give me 10:1 or 20:1 leverage. There really wasn’t much
support. They made me call in my orders because the internet was still 28K
dial-up — 56K was the big deal. Prior to that I had scraped together $25,000 and
was trying to build a little cushion. I was trading a stock that had this
miracle wrinkled cream which cured all wrinkles [both laugh]. I traded it over
and over again. Then one Thursday evening I left a position open over night. I
blew off the next day of work to go skiing with my Dad in Vail. Before the
market opened I called the office to see where the stock was trading. It was
halted! The company was being investigated because they had a bullshit product
that didn’t work. The FDA shut them down.

Obviously I got hit with a major mental blow. There I was about to be a
proprietary trader in the next two weeks and I just got hit hard. I thought,
“This is going to be tough.” So, I persevered and went through with it anyways.
Since that first day I worked as an individual trader. I had a small hedge fund
for a while, but the numbers didn’t make sense. The fund was about a million and
a half dollars, so I don’t think you could call it a hedge fund. Then I ran a
day trading office. From there our business got bought out by MarketWise, a
local competitor, who was involved in trading and investor education. I went to
work for them. I developed courses and traded as a proprietary trader for
MarketWise. I developed some software and did a lot of different things. They
always gave me a good amount to trade with as well.

Then, about three and a half years ago I started
doing a daily blog to help keep my thoughts fresh. At MartketWise I had also
written a daily newsletter. Writing was really good discipline for me to
organize my thoughts and think about what might happen the next day. So, I
started the blog to keep my good habits flowing. Then I slowly built up the blog
to the point where it made sense to monetize. I partnered with StockTwits to accomplish
that.

Damien: You and Joe Donohue — Upsidetrader
— were the centerpiece of core growth in the very beginning at StockTwits. Can
you tell me about your experience and the value you see in StockTwits?

Brian: At first, I was a little skeptical of
StockTwits. When Howard
Lindzon approached me with the idea, I thought, “I don’t know. It could be
like a Yahoo! Message Board and if I want a friend I’ll get a dog.” [Laughing] I
didn’t expect to see such high quality people on StockTwits. It’s really a
positive platform. People call things honestly. Everyone makes mistakes and if
you do them out in the open, people will see that and trust you more. It’s great
to find people who are similar and also somewhat different from my approach. I
like to get different perspectives.

The danger for newer people is to blindly follow others into trades. That can
be a concern. For example, I’ll say I bought a certain stock and later I’ll
tweet I sold it for break-even. Two days later someone will email me and say,
“Hey, I’m still holding that stock. What do you think?” I’ll try to be as polite
as possible and say, “You’re on your own. I told you I got out of that stock.”
So, the danger is that people just blindly follow others. Regardless, StockTwits
a great source for identifying symbols you might not normally look at, getting
some news, and great links to real fascinating stories.

StockTwits is what you choose to make of it. The
people I follow have chosen to take it seriously. They put forth a positive
effort which makes it really exciting for me. Also, StockTwits TV gives you a lot
of great views where it’s more than just 140 characters. You can get a full
dimensional aspect.

Damien: Who do you follow on Stocktwits?

Brian: I’ve found some good traders and good friends
on StockTwits. There are also people that fit into both of those categories such
as Joe Donohue
(Upsidetrader), Todd Stottlemyre whose skills as trader I respect a lot, TodayTrader who does a
great job, SMB Capital
is a professional trading firm with consistently valuable insights, and AnnMarie2006
has a great head on her shoulders. There are a lot of others I follow, but those
are the core.

Damien: Brian, you have seen and taught many traders. What are three
of the most important things you think every trader must learn to be successful?
On the flip-side, what are three of the most common mistakes every trader must
avoid?

Brian: First, successful traders must have flexibility in their opinion. The
market doesn’t care what you or I think about a stock. The market is going to do
what it does. Things will happen that seem very irrational. So, you just have to
be prepared for anything. You must have a back up plan for every situation.

Second, keep your analysis fairly straight forward and simple. By that I mean
understand the market structure and then learn to trade the stocks that match
your personality in terms of price, volume, and that sort of thing.

Third, at the end of the day, it’s only price that pays. Everything else is
just opinion. Even if it comes from the President of the United States, George
Soros or anyone else, the market will show their opinion is wrong at times. So,
if you blindly hold onto something because of your belief of ego, you can get
run over and then backed up on.

Insofar as mistakes, the first is trying to master short-term trading before
understanding longer-term fundamentals. Basically, trying to run before you
learn how to walk. You have to go into it slow. The market will be there. But
people have to slow down a little and not try to get rich on every trade.

Second, realize that you’re going to make mistakes. If you can cut those
losers quickly, you’ll keep those losses small enough to come back the next day.
There are always more opportunities.

Third, right now a timely mistake is not understanding what they’re trading.
Leveraged ETFs are a perfect example. To this day I am shocked I get horror
stories emailed to me about people who are still holding FAZ and not
understanding why they haven’t broken even yet. So, understand what it is you
are trading and be aware of the leverage.

Damien: When I interviewed Mike Bellafiore from SMB Capital, he talked a
about how his firm screens for candidates who have the characteristics of a good
trader. If you were screening candidates to start your own trading firm, what
would those screens be looking for as both strengths and
weaknesses?

Brian: Obviously, you want somebody who is smart –someone who has the
horsepower to understand the markets. But, not necessarily the MBAs. They don’t
always make the best candidates. I prefer street smarts — someone who is a bit
of a hustler and quick on their feet. If I was interviewing a candidate to come
trade my money, I would also want to know that he or she has the ability to
change their opinion when they see evidence mounting that they are wrong.

I think a good way to judge some of those things is to go out drinking with
someone and see them get their guard down. Then they will reveal who they really
are. If they can maintain their clever wit, I would be impressed. Another test
would be to go driving with them — and not in that order! I’d like to see
aggressive drivers who can successfully drive through traffic and various things
that get thrown up at them without endangering anyone. I’d like to see someone
who is anticipatory in their thought flow. For example, if they see a light
turning yellow, do they have enough time to make it safe or should they start
slowing down. What is their instinct? Do they stop at every yellow light? Or, do
they go for it on some of those when it looks safe. That’s oversimplifying it,
but I think they have to be anticipatory and driving could be a good way to
effectively measure it.

Damien: Moving on to some more trading specific topics, I want to
discuss the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) indicator. My lessons with you
taught me about VWAP. Can you explain why VWAP is important yet remains
underutilized by individual traders?

Brian: VWAP gives us a benchmark of value throughout the time period a trader
references. On a one-day timeframe, VWAP tells us who is in control — the buyers
or sellers. If VWAP is rising throughout the day, then buyers are firmly in
control. So, there is no reason to short that market. If VWAP is falling
throughout the day, then sellers are firmly in control. So, there is no reason
to buy that market. VWAP is a great way of looking at supply and demand as it
changes throughout the day.

VWAP is underutilized because it’s still not known well or offered by many
places. Until recently, VWAP has been considered an institutional tool. So, most
people haven’t found enough information about how to use it. However, I am
starting to see it available more often and discussed more each day, so that is
changing.

Damien: Brian, if you were hanging out with another pro trader who asked what
are the one or two most important lessons you have, how would you answer?

Brian: All of my secrets to success are in my book. But in that situation I would say to focus on the
cyclical rhythms of capital through the markets on all timeframes. Then, learn
how to understand the way each timeframe fits in with another. The long-term
trend is nothing more than a bunch of shorter-term trends. So, the short-term
trend leads the long-term trend. You have to understand that different
participants come into the market at various levels and timeframes.

The market is always a moving target. However, if you can understand who is
doing what — rather than memorizing patterns — you will be successful. Put
yourself in an investors shoes and ask, “How would you feel if you were a swing
trader or day trader at this point on the chart?” Then you can think about the
cumulative perspective of the market and support it with the lines and bars on
our charts.

Damien: You mentioned trends. I’ve also noticed you have a great nose
for sniffing out trends. As you know, the conventional wisdom says that once
something reaches the headlines, you’re too late. At what point do you get
involved with the trending stocks?

Brian: I understand the fundamentals of a lot of companies. It’s a fine
balance. For example, I’ve traded the stem cell stocks over the past few
election cycles. Bush was going to veto them and Obama promised to give federal
funding to stem cell companies. So, watching the television and headlines made
me realize this issue was coming into the public perception. Then I look at the
charts to see whether the stocks have already made a move. If they have, I will
dismiss them. If not, I will start stalking the stocks and wait for evidence
that larger players are accumulating the shares. Then I will establish positions
as the stocks start to break out before big volume starts coming in.

But you have to be very active and attentive. In the case of stem cells, the
stocks plummeted the day Obama signed the bill. It was a classic case of “buy
the rumor, sell the news.” The problem is these companies are years away from
making money or bringing things to market. Ordinary investors at home don’t
recognize this. They just think, “Wow. That’s great news. I’m going to invest
because maybe it can cure diseases.” This person is going to be late to the game
if they are investing this way. Unfortunately, it’s simply a matter of not
understanding how the stock market works.

Damien: Brian, what is it like to become such a successful trader
outside the traditional system? Do you ever dream of running a fund or trading a
book for a huge financial firm?

Brian: Definitely. The first time I ever heard of George Soros I fell in love
with the idea of getting wealthy doing such an interesting thing. It’s something
I will look at in the future because my current projects still require a lot of
attention. Even at 41-years old I am still young in this business. I hope the
opportunity will be there a little later down the line.

I’m not very interested in all the back-end, administrative stuff. So I’d
probably be a much better partner for someone who wants to manage that part.

Damien: We took some questions for you from our Twitter followers. A
frequently asked question was to share your best trade and worst trade. Do you
mind sharing?

Brian: I don’t mind at all. My best trade was a sector trade. Back in 2001 I
recognized that security stocks would be more important in an increasingly
unsafe world. So, I identified about a dozen companies — many of which are no
longer around. I have always been a fairly conservative trader. I don’t usually
swing for the fences. But at this point in time I had deep conviction these
stocks would rally. So, I presented the thesis to my boss. I asked him for
additional buying power to take advantage of the opportunity.
After I got the
necessary approval, I loaded up on five different companies and rode the trend
perfectly. The prices kept running higher and the stories got bigger. I made
more than one trade, but it was a memorable score.

Fortunately, on the negative side, I didn’t load up and explode. I have two
“worst trade” stories. One is already on my blog, so I’ll share a different one.
Back seven or eight years ago, the company Taser went on a run. Some days the
stock could move 10 or 20 points. Then it was splitting and running again. Well,
one day I thought, “This has got to be it.” So, I went to sell the stock short
but there were no shares to borrow. Unlucky for me, I found Taser warrants.
Since there were no restrictions to short them, I decided to trade those
instead.

I started my trade very conservatively with smaller batches of shares. The
stock would drop 10 points in a heartbeat and I thought, “I got it! I rode the
stock on the way up, now I’m going to be the master of the warrants on the way
down.” Then one day I shorted a few hundred shares and they went against me a
couple points. So, I decided to add to my position and short a little more … and
short a little more … and short a little more. Before I knew it I was down about
$15,000 or $20,000 on the day.

As a result of my experience, I have the strongest
conviction that you really need to trade the trend. You can catch little blips
in the opposite direction, but you must stick with the primary trend.

Damien: A lot of traders deal with the dreaded deer-in-the-headlights
moment when things spiral out of control. At what point did you know you had to
pull the rip chord to prevent a career ending experience?

Brian: In both my worst trade experiences, I exited because it was the end of
the day. The financial damage was horrible and I knew I would beat myself
emotionally later. I didn’t want to then lose sleep worrying that the stock
would open the next day and continue going against me. So I say, “Rip the
band-aid. Feel the pain. Move on.” Don’t compound the problem by drawing it out
over time. Once something goes against you, you have to accept that you’re wrong
and move on. You must start trading real small and recovering your loss — a
couple hundred bucks at a time. It feels insignificant. However, you never want
to try to get it all back at up on five different companies and rode the trend
perfectly. The prices kept running higher and the stories got bigger. I made
more than one trade, but it was a memorable score.

Damien: Brian, this has been a real treat to review this great
trading wisdom. Thanks for taking the time and I look forward to speaking with
you again soon.

Brian: Thanks, Damien. You guys are building a great site and I’m glad to
talk with you anytime.

巴菲特只是幸运儿吗

股市茶楼 — Sat, 24 Dec 2011 13:52:24 +0800

在香港素有“平民股神”之称，少年时以5000港元入市，40年后成为亿万富豪，退休后为“无知少女”(指出身无产阶级，拥有很低知识水平，来自少数
民族的中国女性)而幸福地忙碌，这就是曹仁超先生—一位值得尊敬的投资界前辈。不过，在尊敬之余，我认为他对价值投资的看法有失偏颇。

　
　趋势投资高手曹仁超先生将巴菲特的成功归结于幸运，“很多人会说巴菲特的价值投资很成功，而我觉得这是他的运气很好，因为他自1962年开始买到
1974年，是美国股票最便宜的时候。从1974年开始到2007年，美国股票都是往上涨的。他的成功使大家都相信价值投资。但是他的老师格雷厄姆的运气
就很差，他在1922年，同样是价值投资，到了1932年变成了穷光蛋，只好去教书。他教书教出了巴菲特。同样是价值投资，老师和学生的命运不同。”

　
　这段话给人的感觉是格雷厄姆1932年因投资失败而不得不退出江湖，其实并非如此。格雷厄姆是在1956年“功成身退”的，《滚雪球》中的描述是这样
的，“他62岁，而市场已经超越了1929年的高峰。现在的价格让他感到紧张，而他的回报率已经比市场高出2.5%。他想退休，搬到加利福尼亚去享受生
活。”“在格雷厄姆—纽曼公司20年的经营期里，它的年收益率比股市的业绩表现高出2.5%—在华尔街的历史上，只有少数人能打破这个纪录。”

　
　不过，格雷厄姆在1932年确实几乎破产，但这与其说是价值投资的失败，不如说那时格雷厄姆还不成熟。《一个美国资本家的成长》中如此描述格雷厄姆那时
的操作，“当大危机袭来时，本·格雷厄姆联合账户的损失额是20%，还可以忍受。到1930年时，格雷厄姆和其他人一样以为最糟的时候已经过去了，他又贷
款来投资于股票。后来，底部支撑又被跌破了。”

　　贷款买股票，你能相信这是格雷厄姆的所做所为么？1949年，在《聪明的投资者》第一
版中，格雷厄姆建议了一个谨慎的权益类证券投资比例表明他对风险控制的注重：“一般而言，应该控制在比如从20%-50%。”在1965年的第三版里，他
把这一比例调整到了25%-75%。由此看来，1949年时的格雷厄姆比19年前有了极大的进步，也正是这一年，他提出了“安全边际”的概念。

　
　格雷厄姆年轻时的不成熟还体现在尽管他早在1927年就对股市的狂热多头行情有所戒备，却未能果断退出市场。他为《华尔街》杂志写了一篇题为《极度不安
定的股价》的文章，表示了对股价不正常攀升的忧虑。然而，1928年末，格雷厄姆却又准备与人联手成立一家信托投资公司大干一场。

　　汲
取了老师教训的巴菲特就成熟多了。1969年，“几乎已经找不到任何投资机会”的巴菲特却果断地清算了合伙企业，离开了“日益短视和日益投机”的市场。此
后，虽说巴菲特再没有退出过市场，1987年股灾时他仍然保留了准备永久持有的三只股票。但是，伯克希尔公司雄厚的实力已经足以使他经历危机而不倒。

　　此外，巴菲特对负债极为厌恶。他说，“如果你依靠借来的钱，那么每一天你都得希望全世界认为你很好，不然的话，他们就会向你催债。”

　　综上所述，尽管曹先生说“同样是价值投资”，但价值投资从早年的格雷厄姆到巴菲特有了长足的进步，而巴菲特的成功绝不仅仅是运气好。

读孙子兵法有感（10）

股市茶楼 — Sat, 24 Dec 2011 12:52:25 +0800

谋攻篇

(一)
孙子曰：凡用兵之法：全国为上，破国次之；全军为上，破军次之；全旅为上，破旅次之；全卒为上，破卒次之；全伍为上，破伍次之。是故百战百胜，非善之善者也；不战而屈人之兵，善之善者也。

译文：孙子说：大凡用兵打仗，其指导原则应是：迫使敌人举国降服的为上策；通过交兵接仗而攻破敌国的次
之；能使敌人举军降服的为上策，攻破敌军的次之；能使敌人整卒降服的为上策，攻破敌伍的次之。所以，百战百胜，还算不上高明的，不经交战就能使敌人屈服，
才是高明中最高明的。

道升：这段话真可以改变我们的世界观。以我们以前所受的教育，好像越革命越好，打硬仗才算英雄、把敌人全部消灭掉才算革命好汉。可是孙子告诉我们，不战而
屈人之兵，善之善者也。那么就算百战百胜，非善之善者也。打仗需要整个国家和整个民族全民动员，人人参加战争，将把整个国家和民族投入到战争之中，很容易
陷国家与民族于深重的灾难之中。人民的生命财产将会受到严重损失，付出惨重的代价。所以从成本的角度和人道主义的角度来看，都应该避免战争，能不用兵尽量
不使用兵力，只有在万不得已的时候才出兵震慑和打击敌人。

在投资中，主力也不敢随意出兵，强行逆市而为，这样做费用太高了，还容易陷自己于死生之地。借助大盘指数的上涨才能做到不战而屈人之兵的效果。所以在股市
中，跟随大盘指数上涨的股票占了绝大多数，通常能达到90%~95%。如果一波指数牛市行情，那么跟随大盘指数上涨的股票大约会占99%，只有非常少的股
票由于摘牌等其它原因没有上涨。就算垃圾股也会跟随大盘指数飚升。所以根据这种情况，我们炒股应该有一个基本原则，那就是“不战而屈人之兵”，只炒作指数
行情。这样胜算才高，费用才小，容易轻松取胜。例如，最近股票市场大跌，在大跌时前几天大涨过的股票个个滚落下来，我数了数，95%以上的股票跟随大盘指
数下跌。我们想炒股轻松就要借势，通过借势才能实现低损耗，高产出，风险相对低得多。所以那些不看大盘指数炒个股的人其实有些意想天开，说得重一些叫不
懂，说得轻一些信心过了头，不懂得把成功概率放在投资的首要位置。如果一个人不看大盘指数可以在特殊情况下寻找到个股，那是短暂的，个别的，不能成为普遍
的规律。长期不看指数炒作个股很难实现长期盈利。特别在下跌行情中，只有10%~5~的股票上涨，而且几乎都是短线行情，只有几条阳线的行情，在这样的小
行情里有多少胜算，在这样低的成功概率下很难取得胜利。所以我们在这样低的成功概率下炒股亏的可能性相当大。道升以前也想摆脱指数炒个股，以为自己的技术
水平不错，可以实现，做了一段时间，实践证明其实行不通。我们可以不看指数做个股，也能取胜，那是个别事件，不是长期规律，如果把这类事当成了长期规律那
就错上加错，长期取胜的概率很小。如果有人非要试一试，那又何妨？小仓位搞着玩不是不可以，证实一下自己的能力也有好处，但不要把自己的钱袋子亏得太多。
每当我看到大盘指数要大跌了，我就平仓了，一般不留股票。就算有少数股票后来继续拉了涨停板，我也不会后悔，只是感觉到有些遗憾。例如这次行情刚出现大跌
苗头时，我平仓了600735，大跌当天还从-6%上涨到涨停，可是我不会做。因为从盘面上看，我炒过的股票中95%的股票全部正在大跌，只有5%的股票
在上涨。我怎么能保证我选择的股票就能涨停呢？这不是把自己当成了神仙了吗？在不能知道哪些股票要上涨的前提下，逆市做股我们取胜的概率相当低。看到有小
数股票上涨就开始惊叫的人，其实很不明智。

(二) 故上兵伐谋，其次伐交，其次伐兵，其下攻城。攻城之法，为不得已。修橹□①□②，具器械，三

月而后成；距堙，又三月而后已。将不胜其忿而蚁附之，杀士卒三分之一，而城不拔者，此攻之灾也。

【注：】
①：［车贲］。
②：“温”字“氵”旁换“车”旁。

译文：所以，用兵打仗，其策之上者，是在未战之前就挫败敌人的计谋；其次是从外交上挫败它，
使它孤立无援；再次就是在战阵间打败它，最下策就是攻打敌人的城池了。攻城的办法，是不得已而为之的。修造用以攻城的楼橹，和准备如飞楼云梯之类的攻城器
械，需要数月的时间才能完成；构筑攻城的土山，又要花费数月的时间才能竣工。将帅控制不住自己的忿怒情绪，而下令缘梯而上，蚁附乱进。结果，士卒伤亡三分
之一，而城邑仍未攻破，这就是强攻城池所招致的灾难。

道升：这段有两层意思。第一层意思把战争分了四个等级，伐谋、伐交、伐兵、攻城。第二层意思阐述了攻城的困难和危险。

伐谋就是识别对手的诡计，在计谋实施以前识破它，让诡计破产。在股票投资中我们要识别主力特意为我们安排的陷阱，只要我们不跳进主力在暗处给我们设下的陷阱就算挫败了主力的诡计，取得了胜利，也让对手无法实施对我们的引入和套利，我们也不会亏损。

伐交就是要孤立对手，让对手孤掌难鸣，失去外援的支撑和援助。独立的对手想取得胜利是比较困难的，主要迫使对手知难而退，达到了退兵的目的，取得了战争的
主动权。在期货投资中伐交将迫使对手之间不联手，一旦联手起来，势力将增大，自己将处于弱势地位时，麻烦就来了。而在股票投资中，没有空头，只有多头，所
以大家的炒股利益是一致的，主力之间需要大家团结起来，自然能扩大自己的力量，统一行动自然形成一股强大的力量。可是，怎么通讯联络呢？当然是盘口语言。
主力之间多半不认识，也没有办法通过正常的通讯手段联系和沟通。主力有钱，可以在盘口上试盘，例如在期货中，我看好做多，先挂1000手多单，股价明显的
上涨，那么说明多头势头不错，可以顺差多头方向继续做单。如果我打进的1000手多单并没有上涨多少，盘口阻力较大，或者你还想证实一下自己的判断，再挂
2000手多单，如果很快吃，行情向下，那么说明市场的主要方向向下，换句话说比自己更有实力的主力在做空市场。那么我将反手做空单，打10000手空单
出去，市场一定要马上下跌，盈利以后平仓你至少可以纯赚7000手的空单。所以，主力有资金优势，能够以这种方式来伐交，也能让自己跟随着比自己的更有实
力的主力向着同一方向做盘。而在股票炒作中，都只能做多单，没有空单功能，T+1交易制度，限制多一些。但方法一样。可以前一天买一些筹码，第二天打压
口，看市场的承受能力。如果市场很快把卖单吃了，那么可以顺着上涨的方向继续卖进。主力一般不像散户那样着重，或者说迷信预测行情，他们主要在盘口上证实
行情，让自己顺应行情的发展。

伐兵就是出兵。出兵不一定要打仗。有时只是为了吓唬一下对手。大兵压境，让对手感到我军的压力，感觉到我军随时可以动手吃掉他们。军事上的威胁达到政治上
的目的，换取国家和民族的利益。战争是政治的延续，这在中外战争中很常用。而在炒股中出兵多半在盘口中出现。例如我要买盘，我就在卖3~卖5处挂在大卖
单，让盘中的股民心里不踏，会想到行情马上要下跌，特别当大盘指数向下行的那段时候，这种虚张声势的做法特别管用，也是主力吸筹的主力手法。为了出货，我
们可以在买价上挂上大单，如果能有大盘指数上涨的衬托一下，那么买入的人就会没有顾虑地跟进。如果还有人犹豫不决，那么主力还可以对倒筹卖，通过自卖自买
的方式放大成交量，让盘面上显示出买力很强，促使股民积极买股，让自己悄悄地出逃。

攻城是真枪实弹地硬干，困难多，风险高，稍微不慎死伤严重。在这段兵法中，孙子阐述了攻成的过程。除非万不得已，最好不要强行攻城。在围住城后，花3个月
修理和制造攻城用的云梯等器具，还要花3个月在城墙外堆积一个土山作为攻城之用。如果这6个月期间军事指挥官缺乏耐心，发脾气，在不成熟的条件下强行攻
城，士兵可能死伤1/3，而城仍然攻不下来。这才是灾难呀！同样，在上涨行情中，如果上方是筹码的密集区，那么市场主力怎么选择，是选择“攻城”，还是坚
持在城下守候机会？对于一般的小阻力位，主力只要派一个团的兵力就解决了。而面对历史性的大阻力时，主力投入全部的力量还可能没有把握。这时就得等待机
会。一方面可在城下守候，通过整理、慢慢消化阻力区中的筹码，另一方面可以等候利好和市场的题材。那么我们宣传的利好也是云梯，我们的题材就是在城外修建
的攻城土台。有了这两样东西，攻城的准备工作就做好了。所以，主力要发动行情时，一定是有备而来，不打不准备的战争，把方方面面的关系早就疏通好了，要利
好上市公司会配合出利好，要题材有题材。要么大盘行情允许，要么题材强劲，都可以当成上攻的催化剂、信号弹，发动一场轰轰烈烈的上攻行情。面对个人投资者
来说，孤军奋战，没有外援，没有朋友的援助，只有自己一人在操盘。所以买股票要格外小心，反复考察，不能有误。请注意，股民一买入股票那一时刻，攻城便开
始了。胜负天注定，死伤不可避免。攻上去了成功投资，赚了钱；攻不上去死伤1/3是常有的事情，亏钱不可避免。所以当城楼攻不上去的时候，你有两个选择，
一是当叛徒，及时撤退，止损开溜，二是以坚定的革命意志死战到底。结果也有两种，一是城楼终于攻下来了，止损的人踏空了，给了叛徒一个耳光。二是城没有攻
下来，坚定的人亏损严重，这也是革命者必须付出的生命代价。其实在炒股中，这样的攻城战役在道理上很简单，人人都知道，在投资者中谁对攻城的成败判断越准
确谁就是赢家。止损撤离的人是由于判断城攻部队势头越来越弱了，没有胜算打败守城的敌军。而坚持的人是判断攻城部队一定能攻下城，胜利一定属于攻城部队。
在实际攻城以前，你能100%地肯定城楼一定能被攻下来或者一定不能被攻不下来吗？答案是不能肯定。那好，我们只能使用概率统计手段，估计双方的胜算大
小，哪个胜算大选择那一方，其后把筹码压在大的那一方。最后到现场看实际攻城的过程，这就是实盘操作的来历。在攻城中判断双方的攻防优势，从而得出双方的
力量对比。如果自己压宝的那一方弱，那么我们就选择出逃，如果我们压宝的那方强，那么我们就选择死抗到底。既然剑已出鞘，肯定要赌一把。最后的决定逃还是
留，一定是通过多空双方实盘交战才能取得，肯定不是异想天开想出来的。这是最好的实事求是的马列主义思想方法的最好诠释。操盘的目的就是要在实践中决断多
空双方的强弱，把自己的筹码要放在强的那一边，这就是著名的顺势而为的理论和方法。所以成功的股民一定是趋炎附势之人，他们都是势利眼，只向强者靠近，只
给强权交朋友，是一定要背叛弱势群体的叛徒。当我写到这儿的时候，我们都明白了为什么有那么多股民死在股票市场里，因为他们太善良，太纯洁，太正直，心中
没有弯弯，不想趋炎附势，也没有攀权附贵的意识，心中总是惦记着弱势群体（中的股票）。所以弱势群体中的股票一旦下单攻城，死的多活的少。从统计学上看，
每次股民买股攻城失败后产生的亏损通常有几十%，与孙子兵法中描述的攻城失败以后牺牲士兵的数量1/3相当。所以这就是为什么在投资上必须坚持止损这条铁
律不能变。看到城攻要失败了，马上撤退才是正确的，可以避免更大的损失。

在股民的世界里，人们很容易把投资搞成了做学问，搞成了家庭作业，做算术题，好像只要思维正常，逻辑清楚就能赚钱。其实这是错误的。投资是一个动态的过
程，就像攻城一样，在攻城的过程中什么事都会发生，变数相当大。我们不能以静止的世界观来看待股票投资市场，要以动态的、不断跟踪事件发展过程的世界观处
理问题、解决问题，堵住漏洞，扬长避短取得优势，最后才能取得攻城的胜利。所以炒股没有恒定不变的理论和方法，炒股也不是事前就能完全预测的。它是一个动
态的过程。只有当我们能够把握这个动态的过程，才能取得绝对的优势。可惜我们无法全部把握这个动态的过程，我们有时只能看到这个过程中的某个瞬间或者一些
片面和侧面，并没有全面了解或者看清攻城的全貌，在处理投资问题上必然有漏洞，出错和亏损难免。所以，我们要防止自己以静止的世界观看待投资问题，也要防
止异想天开，根本不到攻城的第一线去调查研究，获得第一手战场的真实资材，而是坐在家里或者办公室里空想，做白日梦。这样的人才是最危险的。最近我在大阳
论坛里发现了一位白痴先生，自称河南阿牛，一看这个名字就知道牛皮得很，写了1个月的帖子，文理不能，就成了论坛的丑星—大阳论坛的芙蓉弟弟。我打了
几帖来看，呵呵，全是自我的幻想，自我吹嘘，以贬低他人为自己贴金，其实狗屁不通，河南骗子一个，真是幼稚可笑呀。只要我们稍微把他的帖子内容前后仔细跟
踪和比较一下，马上能得出这样的结论：一位说慌不脸红的，地地道道的论坛流氓，河南骗子。我真不知道大阳论坛的板主是怎么上看他的，真没眼光。把他弄成高
手我都想吐，与他排在一个板上我都感到低人一等，变成了下贱货！大阳论坛为什么越来越差？走到了今天这种地步，一是高手栏里人员太多，不够格的人太多，只
要能挂几帖烂帖的人统统都弄成了高手，这不是胡闹吗？特别也把这么一个明显的河南二流子也安排在高手栏里，真让人太不可思议。所以我完全理解杭州方平要
走，与这样的下贱货在一起自己都感觉到下贱。如果你们能认真读一遍他的帖子，他那套骗人的手法太低级了。一位河南来的小混混想当大阳股票论坛的大佬，当然
要表现一下。除了主观幻想，就是神仙式的自我表扬，自我赞美。我就不明白了，这样低能的河南骗子所使用的手段并不高明，说谎从来不脸红，污蔑和攻击他人，
制造混乱，然后把自己当成一位受害者，以便混水摸鱼。这位河南骗子他自己感觉他想什么市场就能给他什么，臆断空想水平一流，吹牛水平不错，被他的牛话大话
空话迷住的人还真不少，惟一胜过我的地方就是论坛人气比我旺。学习了孙子兵法，让我们明白，为什么亏损的人总是多数，因为没有脑子的人太多，想不劳而活的
人太多，不去仔细看盘口，不去了解攻城的细节，而只想听天方夜谭式的神仙故事，不去想一想股票市场上有神仙吗？有带头大哥吗？那些整天大谈大阳论坛没有高
手的人，骨子里就相信神仙，相信高手，做梦都在想天上有位神仙丟几块骨头下来。。。。这是典型的不劳而活的剥削思想。这类人，主力要弄他们，骗子要骗他
们，惨啊！

(三)
故善用兵者，屈人之兵而非战也，拔人之城而非攻也，毁人之国而非久也。必以全争于天下，故兵不顿而利可全，此谋攻之法也。

译文：所以，善于用兵打仗的人，能使敌人屈服而不依靠对垒交兵，拔取敌人的城邑而不依靠强攻，毁灭敌人的国家而不必旷日持久。一定要用全胜之策去与列国诸侯争胜于天下。只有这样，才能既使兵力不受顿挫而又可使胜利圆满取得。这就是以谋略攻敌的法则。

道升：此段讲了谋攻，是战略战术追求的最高形式。谋攻追求以最小的代价取得最大的利益。中心思想体现在“兵不顿而利可全”，即要兵
力不受到挫折的条件下取得圆满的胜利。在孙子兵法的后面篇幅里，多处强调了先守后攻的取胜策略。我们只能做到先守住阵脚，不让敌人击败我们。而我们不能保
证一定能击败敌人。要能击败敌人，除非敌人给我们机会和露出破绽。

其实在我们的投资意识中，天生有一个缺陷，认为我想做的事情一定能做到。“人有多大胆，地有多大产”很容易成为我们的行为习惯。文凭越高的人自信心越强，
受到学校纸上谈兵的思维影响（特别是商学院的毕业生、金融学院的毕业生、财经学院的毕业生等更要小心又小心，因为你们学那套东西多半是垃圾，没有什么用
处。），越容易在不知不觉中犯下这样的不容易被人发现的常见错误。这也是我们经常发生在投资中的最严重的危险意识。不是我们想成功就能成功的，要市场给我
们机会，要主力给我们机会。我们千万不能以自我为中心，想当然。那样，我们只能成为优秀的作家、诗人，成为了善于做白日梦的好手。搞投资最好的办法，就是
深入实际、调查研究，走中国共产党成功的道路，到攻城第一现场搞调查研究，掌握第一线攻城的真实资料，全部了解攻城的详情，不必道听途说，听信第三者口中
的股评，听信公众的传言，相信公众的意见。个人投资者必须做到自我发现、自我研究、自我判断、自我决定，走独立自主的道路。如果您相信了股票论坛上有神
仙、相信股市里有救世主就等于轻信了骗子，忽视了自己的能力。一旦出了这样的事情您能原谅自己吗？

谋攻是我们追求的目标；谋攻是战争和投资中的最优化；谋攻追求以最小的代价取得最大的成功。那么在股票投资中，怎样以最小的代价取得最大的成功呢？我记得在2006年世界足球杯期间，我写过一帖《道升随笔251：从防守型球队和攻击型球队看炒股的类型差异》。
文中谈到了不被看好的防守型球队多半进入了8强。而法国队一路蹒跚，在小组赛里法国队让人非常失望，看不出还有什么攻击能力，前锋已经死绝了，更不要说能
够出线，可是最后法国队进入了冠亚军决赛，不可思议。这件事让我感触很深，也让我反思投资股票过程中一些方式的重新认识。防守球队之所以能够成功，先保证
自己不失球，然后抓住一次机会击败对手。进攻型球队进攻好看，但破绽也多，容易被对手击败。当时我在炒作000780G草原发，通过对此股的认识和研究，
我认为防守型的投资方式应该在回调浪完成以后，K线沿着MA线盘升时介入。这样的买点安全性比较高，收益也比较大，请看下图。

在投资中，我们要讲究谋攻，追求“收益/风险”最大化。无论我们采取什么样的投资方式，不能忘记追求“收益/风险”最大化。

做好交易计划比做好交易系统更重要

股市茶楼 — Sat, 24 Dec 2011 12:52:25 +0800

为什么我们做股票比做期货做得好，除了股市中长期的操盘经验以外，最重要的地方是我们习惯在股市里做交易计划。

为什么是交易计划呢？简单地说，就是当发生了什么事时该怎么做的计划。我们即使有良好的交易系统，也不能代替交易计划。交易系统指导交易以前应该做的事
情，比如选择什么样的市场，在什么时候进场，进场以后未来的盈利空间可能有多大（盈利期望值），行情有可能上涨或者下跌到什么位置等等。我们可以根据交易
系统的指示在什么地方进场，如果行情发展正常，我们又可能在什么地方出场。这些都是在买入以前由交易系统指示的结果。可是，一旦我们买入了，一切都由市场
来决定，即在买入以前由交易系统提示，在买入以后只好听天由命了，绝对不是什么交易系统能够左右市场的。虽然我们可以在交易以前遵循交易系统的指示该怎么
怎么做，这样胜算概率要大一些。但是市场就是市场，风云变换莫测，一旦我们在盘中持单自然风险就来了，或者交易系统指示的行情没有出现时，或者交易系统指
示的行情走反了时，我们该怎么办？这就是交易计划需要做的事情。交易计划是辅助交易系统的一种方案，是弥补交易错误的一种补救措施，也是交易理念的大集
成。有了交易计划以后，就能让我们在交易出现错误时把亏损限制在最小的程度；当有了利润时，有了交易计划可以尽可能让利润奔跑，最大限制地持股赚取利润。
所以交易计划事实上融入了许多交易法则和交易理念，但最终的目的就是要让自己的损失最小，收益最大。

那么交易计划怎么做呢？

以我在期货交易中制定的交易计划的部分内容为例，我先写了限制条款和不能交易的条款，先保护自己才能壮大自己，才能发展自己，最好才可能取得成功。然后写了在什么行情里采取什么样的策略和措施，以及当出现交易错误时应该怎么办等：

1、生病时不做单。

2、疲倦时不做单。

3、心里有事时不做单。

4、在工作时不做单。

5、时间不充裕、后面有事要办时不做单。

6、没有感受到行情的脉搏时不做单（对行情没有感觉时不做单）。

7、当天短线连续亏损3笔单时不做单。

8、每笔单的亏损额度最大不能超过总资金的1％。

9、连续2天亏损时要休息1天，连续3个交易日亏损时要休息3天，连续4个交易日亏损时要休息一周。休息是为了寻找失败的原因和总结经验教训，更重要的是让失败的阴影能够在时间里慢慢的消散。

10、当账户在一段时间里连续亏损时要减小交易量，当账户在连续盈利时不能随便增加交易量。因为在连续盈利时容易激动和产生赚钱的幻觉，容易在大仓位下把
赚来的利润很快地亏了出去。交易量以月或者以季度为计算时间，根据账户上的盈亏情况来调整交易量。这样可以避免在盘中由于赚钱的兴奋让自己掉入盲目自信的
陷阱里。

11、当连续盈利发生时产生了情绪高涨，应该减小仓位，保住利润，注意回避可能马上要出现的亏损。

12、不要把预测当事实。行情的波动是由当时的多空情绪决定的，预测只能看个大方向，不能决定细节。所以做日交易一定要从盘口上看出市场的多空情绪。如果多空情绪看不出来，最好不要做单，那样只能是抛硬币、靠运气赚钱了。

13、一旦行情没有按照我们的预期上涨或者下跌时，要第一时间出来休息和观望。

14、不参与没有空间的整理行情，但可以考虑参与有较大整理空间的整理行情。以黄豆为例，如果整理空间没有达到15点以上，最后不要参与交易。

15、趋势行情主要使用MA线，而整理行情主要使用BOLL线。

16、注意放空赚钱。因为下跌行情市场一般比较恐慌，所以下跌速度快、时间短，赚钱效率比上涨行情更高。要想在期货短线里赚钱，如果不是做空高手，很难有非常成功的感觉。股民出身的人一般是多头思维，更要注意在行情中做空单。

17、做多头行情时，一旦发现行情上涨乏力，或者量价关系背离，或者双顶、三顶时，最好先减仓，谨慎避免突然出现的大阴线。做多单要想赚大钱，一定要避免突然出现的大阴线亏损，否则做多单短线不容易赚钱。在期货短线行情里经常会出现1分钟或者5分钟的大阴线。

18、做空单时要有信心，不必患得患失。多数散户都是多头思维，而主力和有经验的期民都是放空高手。他们做空力度大，坚决果断。所以做下跌行情成功率反而比上涨行情高得多，短时间内幅度大得多。

19、在交易时仓位可以大一些，但是在过夜时仓位在一般的行情里一定要小于20％，最大不超过30％。对于大幅波动的行情仓位最好在10％以下（这儿说的仓位是以保证金来衡量的）。

20、做中长线趋势时，要以周K线为判断行情的方向依据，但在计算仓位时也要以周K线上的波动率作为计算仓位的标准。这样作炒周K线上的期货行情才不至于
由于仓位过大而失手。做周K线时，由于波动幅度大，时间长，可以把止损位设置宽一些，按股票的标准来设置止损的亏损幅度为3％～5％。

21、做期货的最高境界是，在行情中不要思考和计算盈亏，只考虑操盘的正确性和合理性。如果期民能够做到这点，赚钱是肯定的。

22、期货最大的问题的心理问题，而心理问题主要体现在贪婪和恐慌上。做对了时感觉自己仓位小了没有赚到大钱，做错了时又感觉到自己仓位重了亏损严重。这
种思想上的摆动会长期阻碍期民的成功，会长期不能确定自己的交易习惯和持仓大小，也会造成在盘中患得患失。所以，在赢利时不要加仓、甚至在看到行情上涨乏
力时还要主动减仓撤退，避免贪婪的心理问题造成盈利的减少；亏损时要尽快地减仓或者平仓出来以切短亏损。这样自然会限制自己人性方面的弱点。

23、注意自己的情绪会放大到市场。当自己高兴时市场也高兴，当自己的悲伤时市场了悲伤。所以我们可以根据自己的情绪来感受市场的情绪。不要在自己情绪高
涨时加仓，因为顶马上要到了；也不要在自己的情绪极度悲痛时割肉，因为底也快到了，只要再忍一下行情通常会马上出现反弹。我们可以在反弹行情结束以前割肉
出来。

24、一旦追涨或者杀跌时被套，在反弹时（做多）或者回调时（做空）要第一时间出来。即通常在追涨或者杀跌时失手，又没有第一时间出来，没有严格执行止损
计划，或者由于行情太快没有能够在止损点平仓出来，被暂时深套，那么应该选择第一次转折浪出现以后一定要抓住机会坚定地离场，不能有幻想。

25、大约70%是整理行情，如果总是以突破行情来做单，失手的概率大约有70％。所以我们通常要习惯做整理行情，在BOLL线上轨做空单，在BOLL线下轨做多单，注意行情的量价关系，一旦发现可能会出现突破行情，应该主动换单，实现多空转换。

26、如果出现了假突破，通常反手做单成功率比较大。所以不要怕做错突破行情，错了加倍仓位反手做单，马上可以把损失夺回来，还能赚得一份利润。

27、1分钟线上的突破行情可以使用5分钟线上来衡量行情的高度，同理5分钟线上的突破行情可以在15分钟线上衡量，以此类推。

28、做单时，心一定要沉稳，什么厉害得失都不要想，尽量让自己不要思考得失的问题，专心看盘，不可想其它事情。

29、外盘只能看个大方向，不能看得太细。在盘中只能以自己持单的合约为主，关联合约的走势也只能是一个大致的参考，绝对不能看着其它盘口来做另外的合约品种。这是亏损的主要原因。

30、不要相信期评，也不要相信市场对行情的评价，只看K线上的走势，那是最真实的信息，也是最好的回答。

31、如果在行情中寻找不到替死鬼，寻找不到赔钱的人，那么我们自己就是替死鬼，就是亏钱的人。因此在盘中我们一定要发现市场的错误，发现赚钱的机会才能出手，否则很可能成为别人的替死鬼。

32、不要重仓过夜。重仓过夜无法把握过夜的风险，容易被强行平仓，容易被过夜波动造成承受不了的压力，最后功亏一篑。这样，就算看对了行情，也做对了行情，也会因为在过夜跳空中出现操盘失手的错误。

33、大阳（大阴）一出来就会远离MA线，马上可能导致行情的滞涨（滞跌）。这时一定要注意减仓，不要把利润亏了出去。这是止赢的理念。我们有“让利润奔
跑”的理念，很可能持仓太久而把行情做过了头，严重减少了利润。我们也有“不要把盈利单做成了亏损单”的理念，过早的平仓又可能实现不了让利润奔跑的目
标。所以在持仓问题上，经常是相互矛盾，不好折中，保住盈利和不亏损是一对矛盾。有时在盈利条件下为了让利润奔跑，结果可能会导致亏损或者利润变薄。所以
最好的办法就是主动止赢，然后在做错了时积极跟进。

34、做新品种一定要先小单做，或者做几天/几周模拟交易，直到熟习了解为止。在适应了新品种以后再做实盘，不然很容易亏损。

35、书要看，但最重要的是要在盘后经常静心观察K线，在K线图上寻找投资的机会和发现投资的法则。我自己80％的投资手法和灵感都来自观察K线，而不是读书。

36、交易系统要靠自己去发现和挖掘，不能使用别人的交易系统。因为别人的交易系统的核心理念不知道，在应用时不是太信任，必然会导致失败。自己的投资风格不同，技术特色不同，交易系统当然有所不同。

37、自己统计的形态概率是最可靠的。所以我们应该对经常遇到的K线形态作一个比较全面的统计，让统计的概率结果来指导操盘实践。道升在130帖以前统计的K线形态统计，对后来道升的技术发展做出了决定性地贡献。

38、炒股不要做期货，做期货不要炒股。两边都做，容易分心亏钱。

39、上午失手，下午要休息，下午失手，晚上要早些休息。睡眠充足，短线才有保障。

40、锻炼才能保证精神饱满，精力旺盛,长期不锻炼或者锻炼没有规律，操盘时容易分神，打瞌睡，成功率不高。

41、做上海品种一定要注意上午10：30分休息以后的跳空缺口，也要注意下午开盘时的跳空缺口，还要注意下午14：20分休息以后的跳空缺口。当然所有
的期货品种都会在上午开盘时出现巨大的跳空缺口。上海主力在休息以后很可能进行了沟通，造成一天有四个跳空缺口，直接把中小期民的利润挤掉，太黑。因此做
上海品种短线时，一定要注意在上午休息前和下午休息以前把单平掉，不能掉入主力借用行情中间休息设置的陷阱。

。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。

每个人都有自己的实际情况，每个人都有自己的客观条件。所以在制定交易计划时，一定要从自身的条件出来，实事求是，调查研究，才能把自己的问题看清，才能把交易计划制定得比较完善和科学。

大道至简，王道无道（三）

股市茶楼 — Sat, 24 Dec 2011 12:52:25 +0800

第六篇：歼敌之法

方志曰：追涨杀跌，而不要高抛低吸。

结论是：把握趋势是唯一的出路。

作者开篇说道，市场是一个既有趋势，又有随机的世界。行情从一个无穷小的质点开始扩展，一变二、二变四、四变八……演绎了一个由低级到高级，由简单到复杂的发展趋势。而其中的每个变化，都伴随着各式各样的随机事件。

同时，市场又是战争，多空双方你来我往，一方推进，一方防御。胜方每取得1％的盈利，就会有10％的资金进账，而败方刚好有10％的亏损（期货中一般有
10倍的杠杆系数）。所以市场的趋势就是这样强者恒强而来，一旦趋势出现，败方节节败退，胜方节节胜利。这是由于在趋势行情中顺势者是赢家，每前进一步会
增加顺势者“十步”的强度。

在书中，说到了一位C先生，做期货几年，一次都没有赢过。分析他的做单习惯，作者应该C先生的性格决定了他不可能取得成功，C先生做单有以下几条规律：

1、极端逆趋势操作：总是找出涨幅最大的品种去抛空，跌幅最大的品种去做多，结果行情趋势仍然延续，亏惨了。

2、总是满仓操作：满仓操作，盈亏以几何利润计算，连续亏损时越亏越多。所以最好使用30％以下的仓位操作，使用算术利润计算盈亏，这样才会有更多的资金延续操作。

3、不做投资组合，只做一个品种，结果经受不住行情在跌宕起伏中的折磨。

4、每做一笔交易就找大量的基本面的、消息面的信息来证明自己的是对的。他不明白，对不对行情说了算，谁都说了不算。

5、永远把亏损归咎于炒作的品种不好、行情不好、市场不好、运气不好、从来没有认识到是自身理念上出了问题。

C先生的行为习惯和心理常态都反映出普通人的一般生活习性，也反映出市场人性的弱点。如果我们不检查自己的问题，与C先生一样都会出现这样那样的问题。

在书中，作者提供了一个根据MA10日线做上证指数行情的例子，在MA10日线向上行时做多单11次盈利、2次亏损，而在MA10线下行时做多单2次盈利、10次亏损。这说明沿着MA10日线的方向做过夜单成功是比较高的。这也是顺势而为的基本原则。

对于行情来说，整理震荡以后必然会发生行情的突破，形成趋势行情。在大涨和大跌以后行情必然会进行整理，波动幅度会变小。所以我们只能在整理时高抛低吸，
但由于震荡幅度小，容易出现错误和亏损；而在趋势行情里波动幅度很大，一定要敢于追涨杀跌。怎么来判断突破趋势行情和整理行情呢？这与形态有关，行情通常
会在整理以后走出趋势，大涨和下跌以后地出现较大的乖离率，行情又会回到整理的当中。

作者发现期货有四大功能：价格发现、套期保值、金融窑藏、财富分配，其实财富分配才是最重要的，也是最有效的功能。

在技术分析的稳定性上作者作了简述。有时行情在支撑位上很好获得了支撑，进行了反弹，在时也没有支撑得住，行情跌破了支撑位。这都说明了技术分析有时很
准，有时不准，说明了技术分析的不稳定性。市场参与市场的人都是想来赚钱的。人人都想为自己多赚钱。所以，市场的财富分配功能决定了市场永远处于一个不稳
定的平稳状态中。在一个不稳定的平衡下，只要有一只蝴蝶煽动一下翅膀便可导致一场台风；一手错单也可能是造成一波超级大行情的起因。因此，技术分析有道
理，在不能搞教条，一定要有概率思维，掌握技术分析的手法和理念是必须的，但运用上要灵活。

作者对“横有多长，竖有多高”作了解释。整理时间越长，堆积的财富越多，以后突破行情出现以后分配的财富自然有多。当趋势形成以后，趋势延续的可能性远远比反转趋势的可能性大，所以沿着趋势的方向做单成功率在高得多。

作者介绍了在价格行为中寻找趋势的方法，只是抛砖引玉的说了8点，但我们能够通过这8点自己在实践中慢慢去寻找和体会琢磨。

1、价格数值持续变大为上涨，数据持续变小为下跌。（这句话是否太简单了一些）

2、报价箭头向上不涨，向下为跌。

3、行情报价红色为涨，绿色为跌。道升有自己的经验，在看行情报价时，要看数据流中是红色多还是绿色多，还要看买单或者卖单的大小。都可以衡量买卖数据流里的多空对比和行情可能发生的变化等。

4、K线阳线为涨，阴线不跌。

5、MA线的斜率>0为涨，斜率<0为跌。其实可以以MA10线为核心，参考MA5线和其它MA线。在实作操作中，主要看MA5线和MA10线。

6、K线在MA线之上为上涨，K线在MA线之下为下跌。

7、短期MA线在长期MA线上方为上涨，在下方为下跌。

8、相对高点或者低点逐渐抬高为上涨，逐渐降低为下跌。道升认为，看分形形态很重要。下跌形逐渐抬高可看成为上涨信号，上分形逐渐下降可看成为下跌信号。

………….

其实，以道升看来，这8点在价格行为中寻找趋势的方法是经较重要的，但不同K线周期上的重要的支撑位和压力位都可能形成行情转变方向的位置。

作者认为传统意义上的三大套利理论不成立。

1、跨市套利不成立。我们现在不能在国内和国外同时开户，无法展开跨市套利的问题。而且由于国内的期货品种和国外的同类期货品种在规格和质量上不一样，不能简单时看成是同类合约。

2、跨品种套利也不成立。因为不同品种之间没有必然联系，这样的套利风险很大。

3、跨期套利同样没有固定的规律可言。作者一共写了（6）点。但最重要的有两点。一是升水与贴水与合约的涨跌没有必然的规律，任何情况都可能出现。二是如果近期合约向远期迁仓，可能导致远强近弱。如果近期多头逼仓或者轻度逼仓，可能造成近强远弱。

最后作者写出了传统套利上的八大死穴。一句话，做期货最好不要去做套利。

几条趋势格言：

1、关于趋势：

（1）价格按趋势变化。

（2）趋势一旦形成，则更容易延续趋势而不是反转趋势。

（3）历史会重演，历史又是不断被创造的。

2、善于牛熊市：

（1）牛市不言顶，熊市不言底。

（2）牛市无调整，熊市无支撑。

（3）牛顶和熊底是很久以后才知道的。

3、关于追涨杀跌：

（1）底不可抄，但可以追。

（2）可以落井下石，不要螳臂挡车。

（3）追在天花板，天花板上还有天堂；空在地板，地板下面还有地狱。

追涨杀跌的本质是趋势行为，高抛低吸的本质是逆势而为。做期货投资，必然要承认市场是按趋势变化的，市场从来就没有绝对的高点，也没有绝对的低点。每次亏
损都是逆势而为，顺势交易才能赢而壮大。我们在寻找趋势，顺应趋势，不要轻易去作套利。因为传统意义上的套利不具备可操作性，根源在于逆势。

读刘梦熊的《期货决胜108》有感（8）

股市茶楼 — Sat, 24 Dec 2011 12:52:25 +0800

36、正确使用限价和市价

道升：所谓限价单，就是指定价格交易，在固定的价格上成交。但这种交易不一定能成交。还有一种是市价交易，按市价成交。这种交易方式一般肯定能交易，但价
位可能不太理想。道升在行情不太激烈时一般使用限价成交方式，在行情激烈时会使用市价方式。例如在行情起动以前我会选择限价交易方式，但在行情快速上涨或
者下跌中选择市价方式，这样才能完成买卖。

37、学会围魏救赵

道升：有时做习惯的合约没有行情，或者在某个合约中亏了钱，但此合约又没有了好机会。怎么办？可以观察其它期货合约有没有行情可挖。如果其它品种的合约有
行情，可以参与。在期货市场里，有些人只想做一个合约，而道升认为，只要有行情，什么合约都可能做，不必区分熟悉的合约和生疏的合约。我在做交易时，在一
个合约上被咬，可能在其它合约上赚回来。今天前二单在白糖上割了一个小福，赚了一点小钱，我感觉到白糖好像没有大行情。于是我转向了燃油。燃油正在上涨，
第三单我刚一买入燃油行情就回头，我意识到上涨行情短线见顶了。于是我正准备借反弹平仓，这时我只想少亏为盈了。可以当我正准备平仓时，网络突然不通了。
我只好检查网络，当我把网络搞通以后，行情已经下跌了近30点，造成了11％的亏损。我只好先平仓出来再说。于是我看到燃油进入到了震荡行情，不好做，只
好先放弃。于是我把注意力转向了豆油。那时豆油还要底部整理。我耐心观察，不动声色，当行情刚一起动我第一时间买入，持仓几乎到了顶点，赚回来了6％。由
于买燃油时是满仓出击，仓位重了亏损时也严重。可我在做豆油时并不是满仓，所以只赚了6％，如果是满仓这一单就能把亏损赚回来。后来又分别在黄豆和豆油上
做了二笔好单，把亏损全部赚回来了，最后下午时回到燃油上，虽然行情波动不大，仍然做了二笔单好单，到收市时，我抵消了亏损，还赚了5％的净利润。不过，
有意思的是，如果我一直持有燃油多头单不出来，到收盘前平仓，我赚得还要多，可以赚到12％。所以，围魏救赵用得不好，不一定有好效果。这与运气有关。当
亏损超过了总资金的1％时，我一般会斩仓出来观望，看清楚了再做。在亏损状态下一直持仓不动让亏损增大不是我的风险，也不是我的习惯。期货做顺了时，只要
不出现大亏单，赚钱就比较稳定了。从我的期货交易经验上看，交易者一定要习惯做空单，做到多空平衡。这是股民最难做到的。有些朋友可能需要数年的时间才能
做到多空平衡。然后不要预测行情，见什么行情做什么行情。有可靠的好机会时一定要仓位重一些，没有机会不要做，要做也要轻仓做，只当玩好了。期货是一种很
神奇的投资品种，在没有赚钱以前总感觉赚钱很难很难，感觉到世界上最难赚的钱是期货。可是，某一天感觉到赚钱了，你会发现几乎天天可以赚钱。以后我可能会
转战上海期货市场，主要做铝和天胶。做农产品突破行情少，赚钱要少得多。今天收市以后我发现，如果我今天炒作铝和天胶，我很可能今天会翻一番（当然要做对
才行），但是风险也同时增大了。最后刘先生说：要善于综观全局，必要时开辟第二战场。

38、在同类商品中找机会

道升：同类商品具有联动效果。例如黄豆价格涨跌豆油和豆粕的价格也会随着黄豆的价格涨跌。黄豆上涨一般豆油也会上涨，当然有时豆油也会成为领头羊，豆油称
上涨，黄豆跟进。但不管怎么同类商品具有相关性。黄金、白金、白银都是同类品种，如果突然发生战争，一般黄金会大涨。书中刘先生讲了一段故事，说美国的福
特汽车公司宣布了在汽车的排气系统中利用其它材料代替了昂贵的白金，结果美国期货市场里的白金大跌。刘先生最后说：思路在开阔，在同类项商品中通过比较来
抓机会。

39、把握输少赢多的机会

道升：在期货中做短线成功率几乎为50％，对错各占一半。我某天感觉交易状态特别好时，到收盘时一计算才发现我的成功率也很难超过70％。这意味着，要想
赚钱一定要选择行情，只有在行情有“输一赢三”或者“输一赢十”的赔率下才下重仓出击。并且还要做到做错了时尽快斩仓，做对了时尽量让自己耐心持有。所谓
输少赢多的好赔率的机会，就是在临近图表关口、心理关口、政策干预关口的“顶”时做空关，接近“底”时做多头。如果“顶”被行情突破成为了“底”，我们可
以快速斩掉空仓，只会亏一点点。反之，如果“底”被行情击穿成为“顶”，我们做的多单也要斩仓，也只亏一点点。

1、在图表上寻找机会。把K线图上的波峰与波峰连接起来，波谷与波谷连接起来，在上涨行情中，在支撑线上买入，在压力线上减仓。在下跌通道中，在压力线上开空仓，在支撑线上减仓。

2、从心理关口上寻找机会。例如某个合约在长时间内没有上涨某个价位，那么这个价位很可能成为市场的心理关口。当行情上涨到心理关口时多半会下跌。我们可以先在心理关口平仓，看行情发展再作打算。

3、政策干预关口寻找机会。管理层不断打招呼，可以市场上仍然我行我素，管理层可能会出台利好或者利空。那些这些利好或者利空都会形成政策关口。我们可以利用这些东西为我们赚钱。

不管怎么说，只要出现了亏少赢多的机会，一定要把握好。

40、清淡的月份不要做

道升：我们只做主力合约，不做非主力合约。非主力合约没有成交量，你开仓不容易，平仓更不容易。能与没有流动性的品种非常危险。所以我们只做主力合约，才
能顺利地交易。主要合约的标志，一是持仓量，二是成交量。你收盘以后看同类合约中的不同月份的合约，一看持仓量和成交量，就知道谁是主力合约了。

散户和操盘手的不同

股市茶楼 — Sat, 24 Dec 2011 12:52:25 +0800

聪明的傻人和傻的可爱的聪明人

　　——–散户和操盘手的不同

　　散户认为大多数人成功才是自己行动的力量

　　操盘手认为少数人的共识才是自己行动的力量

　　散户认为赢利是对后市趋势的预测能力

　　操盘手认为赢利是对操盘计划的执行能力

　　管理学家早就说过：只有执行力才是管理成功的基础。股票投资，是一种理财方式，也是一种对资金的管理。从来就没有一家公司的管理者进行运营的时候是依靠预测的，百分百是依靠工作计划。只要将工作计划执行完毕，那么该公司的运营和赢利才会有保障。

　　在证券市场中，操盘手从不依靠预测，而是制定详细的操盘计划，并严格执行计划。只要按计划进行操作，不在乎短期的盈亏，才会长期盈利。

　　如果一个操盘手说，我在证券市场中的操作从来不预测后期的走势，只是按照现在市场的状态制定操作计划，并严格按操作计划执行纪律。散户可能会对他嗤之以鼻：连后期的走势都不知道，连哪个股票好都推荐不出来，还做什么呢？

　　然而，结果却是：千方百计预测每天走势的散户亏损的一塌糊涂。而不预测走势，无所谓短期盈亏的操盘手们却依靠操盘计划和纪律屡屡赢利。

　　社会上存在两种人。一种是看似聪明实际很傻的人，他们不懂得舍得，目光短浅，只知道仅仅计较，每次都是通过所谓的预测每天的走势，在股市里行走。

　　还有一种人看似很傻，他们都懂得“舍得”，胸怀大志，目光长远，不在乎所谓的眼前得失，做事情都是三思后行，有详细的计划和纪律，知道做任何事情都是会有成本的先“舍”才能“得”的道理，终成大器。

　　市场总是变化的，但市场的大趋势无非只有三种：上涨趋势，横盘趋势，下跌趋势。

　　看清趋势，制定相应的操作计划。包括买股，持股，卖股，空仓。

　　真的很简单，炒股。

　　赢利真的很容易。

　　关键看你是怎么做了。

　　谁愿意当傻子呢？

坚持独立思考的重要性

股市茶楼 — Sat, 24 Dec 2011 12:52:25 +0800

独立思考的基础是实事求是，我们如何与大众主流观点保持距离？就是要更加尊重事实本身，独立思考不是逆向思维，总是和大众对着干，在大多数情况下大众的看法都是正确的和有道理的，很多时候只是环境变化了，但是大众没有注意到变化而已，所以对客观现实保持足够的敏感是十分重要的，今天的社会由于全球化信息化和自由化导致经济波动越来越剧烈，各种新的事物新的观点新的需求层出不穷，在这个信息的海洋里不迷失，唯一的方法就是勤奋的学习和观察，紧随客观现实社会的变化而变化，对新生事物保持一颗好奇之心，对社会保持一颗敏感之心，紧跟社会的脚步，在大众还没有察觉变化之前作出判断，这才可能做到独立思考。独立思考来自独立观察，自主学习最终独立思考才可能得出正确的观点，所以面对貌似的错误，一定要抱着严谨的精神，大胆假设，小心论证，大众这一次真的错了吗？马有几颗牙只有去看看才能知道，独立思考一定要抱着谦逊的心，大众真的错了吗？不要动不动就嘲笑大众是傻瓜，我们也是芸芸众生的一员，保持独立观点的基础是事实求实，我们也是大众的一员，最近对罗杰斯的那句话有了更深的认识：答案在路上。投资不简单，不是看看指标MACD KDJ PE PB ROE DCF DDX …..就能超越对手盘，投资不简单，令人满意的答案永远在路上，因为那是你的独立观察，没有独立观察的独立思考最终必然成为逆向投资，对逆向投资的教训是深刻的，要时刻提醒自己，独立思考不是因为我比别人聪明，而是因为我有独立观察，马有几颗牙只有看看才能知道。生意是没有指标的，生意只有用心才能理解。

这个道理用一个寓言来表述：一个学者问神枪手，你读过《自然哲学的数学原理》吗？神枪手说：没有。学者接着问：你在射击前计算弹道吗？神枪手：来不及。学者笑道：你对射击太业余了。神枪手说：我只会一枪命中目标。（看到一个网友大谈自由现金流，有感（其实只有两个字：狗屁），特有此寓言），自由现金流能流出奥巴马坚持银行必须分拆他们的业务吗？企业的未来可以用指标测算吗？这种违背常识的混蛋逻辑竟然也有人相信？生意只有用心去判断，计算机也会做生意？太奇妙了，自动售货机生意如何？

投资不是争论，切忌切忌不要被各类漂亮的理论所迷惑，坚持自己独立观察，坚持实践精神，坚持独立思考，踏踏实实，不断练习最终成为一个神枪手。

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